Late July 2008

July 2008

June 2008

Almond exports continue to sizzle as we enter the heat of summer (up 39% for May versus last year), while the domestic market seems to be taking a breather (May numbers down about 11% versus last year). Taken together, total May shipments were reported at 88.5 million pounds, up 15.4% over last May shipments of 76.7 million pounds. This keeps the total shipments year-to-date at a respectable 17.2% over the prior season.

The position report shows committed sales at 223.1 million pounds. By comparison, last year the committed number was at 134 million pounds at the same time. Although some of these commitments have been made for next season, there is no disputing that this is a strong number and that California growers are in a comfortable position. With strong commitments and enough available product to meet early season demand we anticipate that shipments should end the last two months of the season on a strong note.

At the time of last month’s report the market was just starting to digest a bullish shipment report (April up 34%) and a bearish subjective crop estimate (1.46 billion pounds). Bulls are enjoying a slight advantage for now. They are being helped by alarming news from the Westlands Water District where growers have seen a cut in their water allocation due to drought conditions. About 60 to 70 thousand almond acres are believed to be affected, with growers not getting enough water to finish off the crop.

Nonpareils have been squeezed for current crop, with buyers wanting prompt shipment for Ramadan and struggling to find sizes and quality. Going forward it appears that strong shipments and crop concerns will keep prices firm. This should likely continue until at least June 30th when the objective crop estimate is released.

May 2008

The last couple days have highlighted the major theme of the almond industry; bigger crops and correspondingly strong demand. Wednesday the Subjective crop forecast by NASS put the 2008 crop at 1.46 billion pounds. This number is at least 60 million pounds more than most of the talk and 165 million pounds more than the early estimate put out by a group of traders. Today April shipments were reported at 95.6 million pounds, shattering previous records and an inspiring 34.4% over April's performance. Season-to-date shipments now stand at 970.4 million pounds and 17.6% ahead of last year.

Under any other circumstances a subjective estimate such as yesterdays would be sure to knock the wind out of sellers, but with shipments rolling like a steam train it is not so certain. Here is a supply- demand scenario:

Shipments continue at a very modest 15% increase over last year for the remaining three months of the season. 2007 season shipments end at about 1248 million pounds. The carry-in to 2008 season will then calculate at 224 million pounds.

The ability of California to ship strongly has been clearly demonstrated over the past years. If all things remain equal - affordable almonds, weak dollar, increasing buying power in India and China, continued strong health messaging - then 15% is not an unreasonable expectation and perhaps consumption slows to 10% growth if pricing puts the brakes on. All in all, the supply demand situation looks quite manageable even if the actual crop does come in as high as the recent forecast. A carry-out of 200 to 250 million pounds on shipments of 1.4 billion pounds is nothing to be afraid of.

The market over the past few weeks has strengthened for the nonpareils as certain sizes seem to have dried up. Current crop NPS 27/30 which had traded as low at $2.05 to $2.10 was seen in the $2.25 to $2.30 range just before the estimate and buyers were struggling to find offers. As always happens, the category that was thought to be in short supply at the beginning of the season was emerging more readily towards the end of the season and NPS 20/22 was being bought between $2.50 and $2.55 - slightly down from levels seen earlier.

It will take a few days for the market to digest these numbers, while most items will be lower they may not be as cheap as initial buyer reaction would suggest. Only time will tell. season

End April 2008

The subjective almond forecast has been released, projecting the 2008 almond crop at 1.46 billion pounds. See the attachment for details. The forecast implies an average yield of 2210 lbs per acre from 660,000 bearing acres, only slightly down from last season's 2,240 lbs per acre.

The Nass track record has been pretty good the past several years. See the table below.

Today the shipment number will be released for April. At that time we will make a comment on the market.
Click HERE to view the 2008 N.A.S.S. California Almond Forecast report.

March 2008

February shipments were reported at 85.97 million pounds, up over 17% from last February's total of 73.07 million. Rightly or not, there were expectations that perhaps February would be closer to 100 million pounds and this report will likely do little to lift the current mood.

With an additional 20 million pounds of receipts that were reported during February, unshipped inventory is at 685.5 million pounds, about 189 million pounds more than at the same time a year ago. Even if California ships at an unprecedented 100 million pounds per month, there will still be close to 200 million pounds of carry over. A more realistic forecast of shipments increasing at 18% per month will project the carryover at 233 million pounds.

Commitments at 303.5 million pounds show a decrease of 25 million pounds since last report. Sold and committed for the 2007 crop year supply is at about 74% of total. This compares to 77% at the same time last year.

Although prices jumped a little higher after last shipment report, with the onset of sunny and warm conditions in California about two weeks ago sellers have been prepared to do business at lower levels. New crop levels are similar to current crop for standards. However, in expectation of better sizes from next crop, NPS 23/25 is being discounted compared to current crop.

In light of the falling dollar, almond prices are very reasonable, dare we say cheap. However, this fact alone will not be enough to sway sentiment over the next few weeks. Bulls hope now that cheap prices will encourage even stronger shipments. There is also talk as bloom recedes and nutlets emerge it may reveal that trees do need a rest after the bumper 2007 crop and that great bloom conditions do not necessarily mean another record crop. For now, however, there appear to be ample sellers not willing to take that bet.

February 2008

Almonds shipments appear to have recovered momentum lost in December and posted a record January of 97.12 million pounds. This up 14 % from shipments of 85.2 million pounds in January last year and is bigger than most had expected as the talk was that shipment in January would be hampered by vessel availability and a weakening market.

The other bullish surprise is the committed inventory number which climbed since last month to 328.9 million pounds despite heavy shipments. The numbers suggest new sales of 122 million, which is unusually strong for the month of January.

Receipts are nearing the end of the season about as expected. Important to note is that January added another 43.3 million pounds to bring the total to 1.357 billion pounds. This year the tail of the crop is a little fatter than usual, with a few southern hullers taking their time to finish off.

Bloom is around the corner. After a series of wet storms, the weather in California has cleared over the past couple of days. Temperatures close to 70 degrees are forecast for the weekend, which should help to move things along. However, it is still too early to predict bloom weather, which will be more critical toward the latter part of February. For what it is worth, long range forecasters have decided that February will be "unsettled".

Prices in January slipped after traders took advantage of December's unexciting shipments. This report released will possibly counter the weakening shipment argument. However, despite shipments regaining momentum, it is clear that there will be plenty of almonds to get the industry through to next crop. Even if shipments maintain a 14% increased pace the carry-out will still be well over 200 million pounds (compared to 133 million pounds at the end of last season). Consequently, it is not expected that prices in general and in particular prices for smaller sizes, will squeeze dramatically higher.

January 2008

Although a record shipment month was again posted in December, the total of 94.5 million pounds only just squeaked past last December’s total of 94.2 million.   Domestic shipments were in fact down by nearly 6 million pounds at 23.9 million and the shortfall had to be made up by exports.

At the same time sales have been slow - even by December standards. Forward commitments have dropped by 42 million pounds to a total of 303.5 million pounds, suggesting sales of only 52 million pounds in December.

On the supply side it still appears that California is on track for a total of a little over 1350 million pounds. Receipts at the end of December totaled 1314 million pounds. Although receipts slowed in December to 82 million pounds, typically another 3% to 5% of the crop comes in after the end of the calendar year. This year shouldn't be any different. We are told as you drive around the southern valley, one still sees the occasional stockpiles still waiting for hulling.

Over the past month, prices were little changed in a quiet market.

The December position report may be the crack in the armor of strong shipments that the buyers have been waiting for. It appears that there will be enough supply to get them through to next crop and buyers will probably delay concluding purchases. However, size will become an increasingly important issue in the months ahead and though pricing pressure might be expected on smaller kernels the 27/30's and larger should better maintain value.

November 2007

Shipments in November were reported yesterday at another record breaking amt of 129.5 million pounds, up 16.2% over last November's shipments of 111.5 million. Cumulative August through November shipments are now 76 million pounds ahead of last year's pace and total 506.2 million pounds.

Receipts added another 235 million pounds in November and now total 1,231 million pounds. Typically another 10% or so of the crop comes in after November -- in 2003 it was 11.5%, in 2004 it was 8.7%, in 2005 it was 9.9% and last season, which was a late crop, 15.6% was reported after the November number. If another 10% is added then the final crop comes out to 1354 million pounds -- not too far off the CASS estimate.

Commitments dropped from 411 million pounds last month to 345 million pounds for this report. Its believed that the drop in commitments reflects a slower pace of selling in November, which is no surprise.

Prices have backed off the past few weeks as buying out of the major importing countries (particularly Europe) has slackened. At the same time there have been sellers in California that appear to be motivated to enter the new year with a little better sold position. Most of the pressure has been on the pollinator side of the market, while nonpareils have only backed off more modestly from previous levels.

It should be noted that mid-November through mid January is typically a slow time for sales. Unfortunately, slow sales at this time of year are not unusual. In this environment a few anxious sellers can sometimes move the market lower.

This latest report, however, will most likely remind sellers that they can afford to wait for buyers to come back to the table for first and second quarter needs. The pace of shipments is eating up additional almonds expected from the bumper crop. The dollar remains weak with no expectations for this to change in the near-term. Given a comfortably sold position, strong momentum in shipments and a competitively priced product versus other nuts its anticipate that prices will hold at today's levels.

October 2007

Despite concerns about pasteurization, California has another month of record shipments under its belt. September shipments for domestic and export set new records and totaled a combined 121.9 million pounds versus 110.4 million pounds a year ago. So for the first two months of the year shipments are at 216.6 million pounds - up 27% compared to last year. Although shipments to every region were strong, of note are 14.8 million kernel pounds of inshell exports primarily to India. For the first two months of the year India has bought 27.1 million pounds, compared to 15.7 million in 2006. India is now the leading export destination for California almonds.

Commitments are strong as well. Total commitments stand at 370 million pounds, up 65 million pounds at the end of September last year. Shipments plus commitments stand at 587 million pounds. Assuming the crop comes in at the forecast 1.33 billion and adjusting for a 3% loss then California is 46% sold - a relatively comfortable position for this time of year.

Receipts to date are reported at 593 million pounds, up from 406 million a year ago. Receipts increased by a massive 439 million pounds in September. This figure is more a measure of hulling and shelling capacity than of crop size. Sizes continue to run small, particularly in the south. Thus far weather conditions have been favorable for harvest, with only one rain event that slowed things down in the field. Growers are now shaking the last of the Fritz and hoping for enough warmth over the next couple of weeks to get everything out of the orchard and to huller stockpiles. It is still too early to forecast the crop size, but there has been enough talk of disappointing yields in the south that a crop much larger than the CASS forecast of 1.33 billion will be a surprise.

Prices over the past month have reflected a multifaceted market. Anything with size has maintained value. All in all there seems to be very little weakness in this position report. Also remember that competing nuts are relatively expensive. Almonds by comparison give an impression of inexpensive and buyers will likely continue to buy strongly at current levels. So for at least another month firm prices are expected until we see the October shipment numbers. October shipments last year were 150.4 million pounds and California cannot hope to surpass this hurdle by very much, but even getting close should keep the momentum.

September 2007

Some of this increase we believe was the result of inventory building prior to the commencement of the new September 1st pasteurization protocols, but in general it continues the trend of surging worldwide almond consumption. (The regions not affected by the new requirements also showed healthy shipment gains, and committed shipments are up 14% year on year.) Notable shipments in particular were strong Indian in-shell shipments (15.4 million pounds versus 3.1 million a year ago), Spanish imports (10.1 million versus 4.1 million) and domestic shipments (34.8 million versus 27.2 million last August).

In addition to very strong shipments, forward sales are also well ahead of last years levels, with Commitments reported at 282 million compared to 238 million.

Reflecting an earlier crop than last year receipts were noted at 153.7 million pounds, compared to 43.5 million by the end of August last year. This number is not without precedent (in 2004 149 million lbs were received in August) and at this stage gives few clues as to size of the crop. So far the crop looks relatively clean of insect damage (nonpareils reported at 1.59% average damage). Sizes, however, are a challenge. Big sizes are very scarce. For many growers 25% or more of the nonpareils have come in smaller than size 32, which will reduce the salable nonpareil supply (and correspondingly increase the supply of blanchable standards).

With today's shipment announcement sellers are going to want a little more. There is no downside in waiting for a few days before selling further and perhaps the market moves 5 to 10 cents per lb. Anything with size will definitely maintain value. This would include the blanched sliced and slivered which will need the larger end of the spectrum as input. The bottom end of the market will likely be more sluggish as small sizes crowd into sales of standard 5%.

We expect the trend of rising shipments to continue into bloom: production capacity is filling in quickly for the critical September/October shipping periods and interest is forming for the 1st quarter of 2008. For all of the reasons we have mentioned in past reports such as the current value pricing of almonds, weak dollar exchange, strong consumer awareness and growing demand for product, it becomes difficult to avoid drawing conclusions on future price movements.

August 2007

End June 2007 ** Objective Estimate Released **

June 2007

May 2007

April 2007

March 2007

February shipments which were released this first wee Feb and were reported at 73.0 million pounds, about 17% up from February shipment last year of 62.1 million pounds. Cumulative August through February shipments are at 683.4 million, up about 26% from 542.2 million during the same period a year ago. Another 9 million pounds of crop receipts dribbled in during February, pushing the total receipt number to just over 1.100 million pounds.

Reported commitments dropped only about 20 million pounds from last month to 232 million pounds – suggesting sales of about 52 million pounds in February.

Most would believe that there is not much left of the 2006 crop to sell – about 150 million pounds and 5 months left to sell it in. California is actually in a better sold position than they were at the same time a year ago when about 170 million pounds were still left unsold at the end of February.

As discussed last month, a year ago the market rose sharply in March through June. However, we believe there is not as much potential for a repeat performance. Firstly, bloom conditions this year were on average a lot better (particularly in the south). Also, March through June shipments last year were very strong, totaling 312 million pounds, versus 267 million pounds in 2005. Most likely the comparison of 2007 versus 2006 is not going to look as robust.

Nevertheless, with all the good shipment news we can expect that current crop should hold value for the next several months at least as the last of the 2006 crop is rationed out. Certain items such as larger nonpareil extras will be scarce and eventually unavailable. This is a concern with Ramadan coming early this year and needing supplies out of current crop.

With the bloom done, there is consensus that there will be a better crop than last year. Although it is much to early to forecast, figures being bandied about range between 1.2 and 1.25 million pounds. The overwhelming opinion is that the nonpareil crop will be off between 10% and 20% from last year.

February 2007